Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,747
2 New Jersey 19,813
3 Rhode Island 16,239
4 Massachusetts 16,046
5 Louisiana 15,113
6 District of Columbia 15,079
7 Arizona 14,935
8 Connecticut 13,212
9 Delaware 12,797
10 Illinois 11,920
11 Maryland 11,819
12 Mississippi 11,050
13 Nebraska 10,564
14 Florida 10,418
15 Iowa 10,369
16 Alabama 9,577
17 South Carolina 9,499
18 Georgia 9,092
19 Utah 8,397
20 Arkansas 8,365
21 South Dakota 8,186
22 Tennessee 8,017
23 Nevada 7,914
24 Texas 7,901
25 Virginia 7,893
26 Pennsylvania 7,562
27 California 7,499
28 Michigan 7,475
29 Indiana 7,472
30 North Carolina 7,411
31 Minnesota 7,026
32 New Mexico 6,684
33 Wisconsin 6,273
34 Kansas 6,112
35 Colorado 6,109
36 North Dakota 5,216
37 Washington 5,208
38 Ohio 5,148
39 Idaho 5,038
40 Oklahoma 4,521
41 New Hampshire 4,377
42 Missouri 4,292
43 Kentucky 4,074
44 Wyoming 3,006
45 Puerto Rico 2,738
46 Maine 2,573
47 Oregon 2,566
48 West Virginia 2,068
49 Alaska 2,012
50 Vermont 2,012
51 Montana 1,282
52 Hawaii 759

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 484
2 Florida 367
3 Louisiana 353
4 Texas 333
5 South Carolina 262
6 Idaho 224
7 Mississippi 222
8 Georgia 221
9 Tennessee 214
10 California 208
11 Alabama 204
12 Nevada 201
13 Utah 199
14 Kansas 173
15 Oklahoma 165
16 Arkansas 158
17 North Carolina 147
18 New Mexico 120
19 Iowa 116
20 Delaware 114
21 Kentucky 111
22 Missouri 109
23 Wisconsin 101
24 Washington 95
25 Nebraska 86
26 Ohio 86
27 Puerto Rico 86
28 Minnesota 85
29 Maryland 82
30 District of Columbia 75
31 West Virginia 69
32 Rhode Island 67
33 South Dakota 67
34 North Dakota 65
35 Virginia 63
36 Colorado 62
37 Pennsylvania 62
38 Illinois 61
39 Wyoming 61
40 Indiana 54
41 Michigan 54
42 Montana 49
43 Alaska 46
44 Oregon 46
45 Connecticut 36
46 Massachusetts 30
47 New York 30
48 New Jersey 27
49 Hawaii 16
50 New Hampshire 13
51 Maine 11
52 Vermont 3

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,736
2 New York 1,642
3 Connecticut 1,218
4 Massachusetts 1,195
5 Rhode Island 916
6 District of Columbia 799
7 Louisiana 718
8 Michigan 627
9 Illinois 577
10 Maryland 541
11 Pennsylvania 536
12 Delaware 528
13 Indiana 405
14 Mississippi 399
15 Colorado 296
16 New Hampshire 283
17 Arizona 271
18 Georgia 270
19 Minnesota 270
20 Ohio 255
21 New Mexico 251
22 Iowa 234
23 Virginia 223
24 Alabama 215
25 Washington 183
26 Florida 181
27 Nevada 180
28 Missouri 177
29 South Carolina 171
30 California 169
31 Nebraska 150
32 Kentucky 141
33 North Carolina 140
34 Wisconsin 140
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 110
37 Oklahoma 102
38 Arkansas 101
39 Texas 101
40 Kansas 99
41 Tennessee 99
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 81
44 Utah 62
45 Idaho 54
46 Oregon 53
47 West Virginia 53
48 Puerto Rico 49
49 Wyoming 36
50 Montana 21
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 13

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 8
2 New Jersey 7
3 Arizona 6
4 South Carolina 4
5 Alabama 3
6 Louisiana 3
7 Rhode Island 3
8 Texas 3
9 California 2
10 District of Columbia 2
11 Florida 2
12 Massachusetts 2
13 Nevada 2
14 New Mexico 2
15 Ohio 2
16 Virginia 2
17 Arkansas 1
18 Delaware 1
19 Georgia 1
20 Illinois 1
21 Indiana 1
22 Iowa 1
23 Kentucky 1
24 Maryland 1
25 Michigan 1
26 Missouri 1
27 Nebraska 1
28 New Hampshire 1
29 North Carolina 1
30 Pennsylvania 1
31 Tennessee 1
32 Utah 1
33 Washington 1
34 Alaska 0
35 Colorado 0
36 Connecticut 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Kansas 0
40 Maine 0
41 Minnesota 0
42 Montana 0
43 New York 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 133,197 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,202 2 99
Lee Arkansas 92,018 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 89,883 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 87,870 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 18,371 152 95
Richland South Carolina 10,448 450 85
Orange California 6,846 793 74
York South Carolina 5,758 967 69
Pierce Washington 3,651 1453 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,282 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 221 668 78
Davidson Tennessee 190 741 76
Pierce Washington 123 983 68
Orange California 116 1030 67
York South Carolina 43 1623 48

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons